West Basin Fire Weather

[cafban]

Fire Weather Watch for the central and eastern NV.


...STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO IMPACT THE REGION
ON MONDAY...

.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE GREAT BASIN ON MONDAY
AS A PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA. IN ADDITION VERY DRY AIR FROM
SOUTHERN NEVADA WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION...CREATING DANGEROUS
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

Additionally, pretty good lightning outbreak currently just south of Gardnerville. About 100 strikes in the last hour.

[cafban]

Upgraded to a RF Warning. Most of NV and SE ID. Also upgraded to PL 3 for the GACC.

Fire Weather Watch for the central and eastern NV

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
127 PM PDT SUN JUN 3 2012

... VERY STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL IMPACT THE
REGION ON MONDAY...

.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE GREAT BASIN ON
MONDAY AS A PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA. IN ADDITION VERY DRY AIR
FROM SOUTHERN NEVADA WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION...CREATING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS

[ENGSPD]

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1028 AM PDT SUN JUN 17 2012

.STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
AND MOJAVE DESERT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ALSO REMAIN VERY LOW.

CAZ228-180600-
/O.CON.KVEF.FW.W.0019.120618T1700Z-120619T0500Z/
MOJAVE DESERT-
1028 AM PDT SUN JUN 17 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PDT
MONDAY FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE
WEATHER

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/w...flag%20warning

[ENGSPD]

Great map showing just how dry the region is. Stay safe.

http://activefiremaps.fs.fed.us/curr...ype=firedanger

[reno-met]

From a post I put in the California questions, modified for Nevada. This even also looks to impact parts of the Northwest and EGB areas.

Just to give everyone a heads up for what is coming this weekend for northwest and possibly all of northern Nevada. The deep monsoon moisture near the Colorado River will thin a bit the next two days while high pressure sits over northern Nevada. Continued hot and very dry through Friday across the north.

The flow will turn southeast as the high moves east with weak low pressure developing off the coast. With the moisture looking to thin across the south, when it does come north it does not look to be as deep as the event 10 days ago and will likely to be more at the mid-levels. It looks like the moisture in the mid-levels will interact with the low off the coast beginning Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms look possible along the Sierra and through western Nevada. These look to spread north and east Sunday. Initially, the storms look like dry or wet-dry hybrids at best into Saturday night. This looks like it could be a significant event for the Sierra and possibly for northern Nevada as well.

My gut is telling me that thunderstorms will occur, but still question how wet they will be. If the models are wrong and the moisture doesn't thin, it may be similar to the last event. The best chance for wetting rains for northern Nevada would likely be in Elko and White Pine counties. Time will tell what we see. The NWS offices are watching this closely and WFO Reno has already issued a watch for Saturday afternoon and night. (See links below - discussions also). More information can be found at their websites. If you can't find the info, I will try to post links here if requested. Be safe all.

Reno Watch: http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/w...eather%20watch

Reno Discussion: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_foreca...AFDREV&wfo=REV

Elko Discussion: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_foreca...AFDLKN&wfo=LKN

[reno-met]

The event still looks on track and NWS Elko has now issued watches for their entire forecast area of central and northern Nevada. If anything, the event looks to be slightly slower than what I thought last night with any storms Saturday afternoon near and south of highway 50. Then they move slowly move north overnight, especially over northwest Nevada where it could be scattered. The thunderstorm potential continues Sunday with the best threat of dry thunderstorms north of highway 50.

The storms will likely be on the drier side, but some local wetting rains to a tenth of an inch or so will fall under the small cores. The storms will be fast movers at 20-30 mph which will also limit how much rain can fall. Strong outflows are also likely with the dry low levels at speeds of up to 55 mph or so. Keep a heads up out there and be safe. Please check the NWS Reno and Elko discussions for more detailed information.

[RomeoCharlie]

NWS Elko has upgraded Watches to Red Flag Warnings and this part of the AFD says quite a bit:

THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE ONE OF THE
LARGEST DRY LIGHTNING OUTBREAKS ACROSS THE ELKO FORECAST AREA IN
QUITE A FEW YEARS.

[reno-met]

Warnings are now out for almost all of Northern Nevada at various points for tomorrow night into Sunday. This looks to be a big event as RC noted in the Elko discussion. Isolated to scattered storms will form tomorrow afternoon near highway 50. These look to be the 'normal' diurnal type storms, but they will be on the dry side. There could be a few localized wetting rains, but overall the storms will produce little wetting rainfall.

After the storms die off, the main wave comes north with even more mid-level moisture. A new round of storms looks to form just before midnight along a Hawthorne to Lund line and slowly track north overnight. These storms will move north overnight and should increase in coverage to scattered. While moisture increases, the storms will also be moving around 25 mph which helps to limit rainfall. They will likely be wet/dry hybrids at best so many dry strikes will likely occur outside the cores. Storms look to hit highway 50 before sunrise and I-80 (near WMC and east) perhaps around 9 am. The Sierra Front would likely see timing before sunrise with Gerlach around 9-10 am. It is possible another round of storms could form in the afternoon, especially near and east of highway 95. These would also be wet/dry hybrids.

One thing I should mention is that nocturnal events are notoriously hard to forecast. This is the best signal many of us have seen in a long time for nocturnal convection. While what I write here is my personal interpretation, I owe thanks to all my brothers and sisters in the NWS offices as well as Predictive Services. We have all worked together on this. Hopefully this is less than the last really big northern Nevada event in July 2007, and I think it will be significant but not close to that big. Best of luck to all of you on the lines and be safe.

[RomeoCharlie]

x-post of my post in CA Q&D... RFW for the Sierra Front.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_foreca...=rev&version=0

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
238 PM PDT MON AUG 27 2012

...GUSTY WINDS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL
BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
NORTHWEST NEVADA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. OVER FAR NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

[RomeoCharlie]

Looks like a slight chance of some dry storms Saturday and possibly Sunday, turning wetter into Monday.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_foreca...=REV&version=0

...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
...NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR WESTERN ZONE 271 TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...

.DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEVADA SATURDAY
THEN TRACK OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WITH A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE SIERRA CREST FOR SATURDAY. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE WITH A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PRODUCE WETTING RAINS BY
MONDAY.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product....n=1&glossary=1

FIRE WEATHER...
COMPLEX SITUATION UNFOLDING FOR THIS WEEKEND AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER CALIFORNIA/NEVADA. THE FIRST CONCERN WILL
BE THE INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WITH WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH A DRY SLOT ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, BRINGING NEAR
CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF FIRE ZONE 271. THE AREA OF
GREATEST CONCERN IS FROM HIGHWAY 49 TO HIGHWAY 44 ON THE WESTERN
DRAINAGE OF THE FEATHER RIVER BASIN. THE WESTERN SIERRA SLOPES WILL
REMAIN MIXED OVERNIGHT WITH POOR RECOVERIES AND STRONGER WINDS. THIS
INCLUDES PORTIONS OF THE PORTOLA NF AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE LASSEN NF.

AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD, THE INSTABILITY INCREASES WHICH WILL LEAD
TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SIERRA CREST AND
THROUGH PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THESE STORMS WILL BE PREDOMINATELY DRY AND WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW
THEY WILL BE PUSHED WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST. IF FUELS ARE
RECEPTIVE, NEW FIRE STARTS ARE POSSIBLE, AND THE NORTHEAST WINDS CAN
CARRY THE FIRE. IN ADDITION, THERE MAY BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. ON SUNDAY, MOISTURE BEGINS
TO INCREASE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN THERE EARLIER THAN SOUTH OF 80. SUNDAY WILL BE A HYBRID DAY,
WITH THE ATMOSPHERE GRADUALLY MOISTENING UP. STORMS NORTH OF 80 HAVE
A 5-10 PERCENT CHANCE OF PUTTING DOWN WETTING RAINS, WHERE
RELATIVELY DRY STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.